ABOUT
Objectives
Based on the model used for the FWI calculation, this project aims to develop a fire risk prediction model taking into account the behaviour of the moisture content of the species present in the Portuguese forest with bearing in mind the new climatic realities. The development is based on measurements of moisture content and meteorological parameters along with laboratory tests.
The Measurements of moisture content are carried out in various locations throughout the national territory (Lousã, Faro, Viseu and Viana do Castelo). The taken measurements over the project’s period will create a unique analysis database.
Background and development
The exceptional fire season of 2017 in Portugal was calamitous with more than 100 human fatalities, a vast amount of structures affected and a burnt area around 500 000 ha. The exceptional fire season of 2017 occurred in a scenario of a long hot and dry period like the outstanding fire season of 2003 in Portugal, which coincided with a significant heatwave that struck Europe.
In the near future, in a large area of Portugal, some of the climate risks of higher priority and therefore requiring an urgent response are mainly the ones caused by droughts and heatwaves, which have a significant influence in the increasing of forest fire danger and its effects.
Therefore, the present study intends to contribute to the investigation of the climatic changes effects at a regional level, namely in the increase of forest fire danger.
One of the main factors determining the fire danger is the forest fuel moisture content, given its implications in almost all aspects of a forest fire, including ignition probability, number and extension of fires, mode of fire spread, fire line intensity, ease of extinction and consequences.
In this context, the assessment of fuel moisture content associated to extreme meteorological and climate events reveals to be crucial for both characterization extreme fire events that allow improving early warning systems and characterization of fire propagations over such conditions.
In Portugal, the dynamic fire danger is given by the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System. The basis of this system is the prediction of dead fuel moisture content based on a set of physical equations calculated through meteorological data.
Regarding the behaviour of forest fuels, the parameters necessary for the modelling of their moisture content will be laboratory determined for different species and different environmental conditions.
These parameters will allow to simulate the extreme future conditions of moisture content and thus of fire danger according to the predicted weather scenarios for Portugal. This will lead to a deeper understanding of the relationships between fire risk, moisture content and other characteristic parameters of forest species and measurement sites.
Therefore, this web platform was created to present in real-time the obtained results of moisture content and meteorological data. During the project period, this platform will be available to entities that work in forest fire management in the areas subjected to the study.
